The country is experiencing a cultural shift towards individualistic norms and values that prioritize personal choice over traditional family values, reflected in the growing acceptance of alternative family structures such as single-parent households, divorce, and childless families 26. Iran has entered a Second Demographic Transition characterized by low fertility rates and a shift away from traditional familial values, similar to the one that occurred in Europe and North America and is now spreading to Asia 25. Iran, which had a population of 79 million in 2015 and is the 17th most populous country in the world, is projected to experience a population decrease to 70 million by 2100 24. Additionally, migration, death, birth, and fertility rate all impact population growth 23. Marriage, divorce, death, and birth rates are crucial factors for planning and policymaking regarding population, economy, society, and infrastructure worldwide 22. In Colombia, 65% of the additional deaths in the initial weeks of the pandemic were attributed to COVID-19 21. Iran recorded 58,900 excess deaths in 31 provinces during the first nine months after the pandemic 19, while the United States saw an additional 198,081 deaths during the pandemic 20. Conversely, the death rate increased due to the pandemic. Italy also experienced a decrease in the birth rate during the pandemic 17, and the fertility intention of women in China decreased as well 18. Following the lockdown, there was a significant decrease of 20% in live births in New York, compared to the previous year 16. The birth rate declined even further in the six months following the outbreak 9. Before the pandemic, Japan already faced a concerning decline in marriage and fertility rates. Furthermore, the pandemic impacted the fertility rate 15. In Denmark, the rate of divorce decreased in 2020 compared to previous years 14. In Italy, people preferred unregistered cohabitation and marriage during the pandemic 13. In Japan, the pandemic led to a decline in both marriages and divorces, particularly during the state of emergency 9. In Florida, Hawaii, Dallas, and Seattle, the cumulative number of marriages decreased in 2020 compared to the previous year 12. Divorce rates followed a similar pattern, initially decreasing and subsequently rising in certain states 11. In the United States, for example, marriage rates initially declined in several states but later saw an increase in some areas. Similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic, the COVID-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on marriage, divorce, and fertility rates, as well as various aspects of society, including domestic violence, conflict within families 9, 10. The pandemic had significant adverse effects on societies, economies, and employment rates, resulting in social and economic crises 7, 8. Quarantine can have a significant impact on one's daily life, as it limits the ability to interact with friends, family, and society, ultimately affecting both social and individual aspects of life 5, 6. To control the disease, crucial measures such as limiting contact between individuals and implementing quarantine protocols were put in place 4. The World Health Organization (WHO) declared it a global pandemic on Ma3. Within a span of approximately 10 months, it infected over 33 million people and caused over a million deaths in 216 countries and regions 2. The COVID-19 pandemic started in December 2019, and rapidly spread worldwide 1. Supporting families financially is important due to the role of economic issues in couples’ decisions. Vaccination and effective treatment strategies are vital in reducing the pandemic's impact on mortality. Fear of COVID-19 may have increased death rates as people avoided seeking medical help. Birth rates were not immediately affected to the time lag between decisions and actual births. In conclusion, the pandemic has greatly impacted society, particularly in terms of death and divorce rates. Forecasts based on pre-pandemic data showed that by the end of 2020, marriage, divorce, death, and birth rates were higher compared to pre-pandemic levels. However, in the months following the onset of the pandemic, there was a statistically significant sustained effect on increasing death and divorce rates. The immediate effect of the pandemic was a significant decrease in the divorce rate, but there were non-significant effects on birth and marriage rates. Before the pandemic, marriage and birth rates were decreasing, while divorce and death rates were increasing, with only the trend in birth rates being statistically significant. This study examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on marriage, divorce, birth, and death rates using the Poisson regression model and an interrupted time-series Poisson regression model.
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